The Symposium on China's Fiscal Investment and Financing for the Second Quarter of 2026 — co-hosted by the Beijing-based Zhongcai-Anrong Local Finance Investment and Funding Research Institute, the Center for China Fiscal Development, and Anrong Credit Rating Co Ltd — was held on Aug 2. Over 200 experts, scholars, and students from institutions like Renmin University of China, the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Anrong Credit Rating and various local finance and taxation departments participated online. The symposium was chaired by Wen Laicheng, executive director of the Zhongcai-Anrong institute.

Professor Cui Jun from the School of Public Administration and Policy at Renmin University of China analyzed the macroeconomic landscape for Q2 2026, noting a 4.3 percent year-on-year GDP growth. Cui pointed out the significant divergence among the three major demands and identified challenges — such as the stark supply-demand imbalance, sluggish consumer recovery, deep adjustments in the real estate market, and increasing external uncertainties. Following the directives from the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee in July, more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to be implemented. Researcher Shi Yinghua from the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences analyzed the fiscal revenue and expenditure for Q2, noting stable fiscal operations in the first half of the year. With continuous improvements in project preparations and strengthened fiscal management, the pace of fiscal spending is expected to accelerate reasonably in the second half, with active fiscal policies continuing to enhance their effectiveness. Associate Professor Wang Wei from the Zhongcai-Anrong institute discussed government bond issuance trends in Q2, highlighting a "higher at first, lower later, with April as the peak" pattern. Wang projected a decrease in monthly net financing scale for the third quarter, and said the monetary policy stance of the central bank (the People's Bank of China) was a crucial factor influencing the bond market. Professor Li Sheng from the Zhongcai-Anrong institute addressed local government bond issuance trends, noting a record-high issuance scale in the first half of the year. There remained significant room for new bond issuance in the second half, Li added. Li suggested shifting policy focus from issuance speed to project quality and debt sustainability. Dr Zhou Yuanfan, chief economist at Anrong Credit Rating, analyzed the local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bond issuance for Q2, noting stable year-on-year but declining quarter-on-quarter issuance scales. The financing situation remained challenging. With the central government introducing multiple policies, LGFV bond issuance reviews had become stricter, and regulatory bodies were paying more attention to the termination of ratings for these bonds, Zhou said. Professor Yang Hua from the Zhongcai-Anrong institute interpreted government investment trends for Q2, noting that fixed asset investment growth had turned negative, with a sharper decline in private investment. Infrastructure investment had also shifted from growth to decline, temporarily weakening the investment-driven capacity. In the second half, the government will continue to optimize investment structures and promote the construction of key projects, urban renewal, and the development of the "Six Networks" to achieve expected economic growth targets, Yang added.

In conclusion, Wen Laicheng emphasized that the core task for fiscal investment and financing in the second half of this year was to create policy synergy. This involved planning new policies on top of existing ones — to address the issue of insufficient effective social demand, while maintaining a balance between development and risk management.

Writers: JIANG Yan

Reviewers: WANG Qizhi

Editors: WANG Xinyu

Approvers: HUO Xiaoran